Analyzing Retention Determinants in Public Universities: A Quasi-Experimental Approach Using Panel Data

Abstract

Student retention in public universities remains a persistent policy and equity challenge. This is especially true in resourceconstrained educational systems where large enrollments, financial vulnerability, and limited institutional support structures
intersect. This study develops a solution-oriented analytical framework to identify actionable determinants of retention. It
utilizes a quasi-experimental panel data perspective grounded in low-cost institutional evidence rather than proprietary
datasets. The article narrows its focus to public university environments and demonstrates how causal-inference-inspired
reasoning, such as difference-in-differences logic, fixed-effects interpretation, and interrupted institutional change analysis,
can guide practical retention strategies without requiring expensive randomized trials. Real-time institutional practices are
synthesized to illustrate scalable and budget-neutral interventions. These include micro financial aid, early academic warning
signals, responsive advising systems, and structured peer mentorship initiatives. Building on these determinants, the study
proposes an integrated low-cost retention intervention model. This framework combines risk detection, tiered support
mechanisms, and continuous quasi-experimental monitoring for policy learning. The findings emphasize that meaningful
improvements in persistence and completion can be achieved through data-informed governance and targeted microinterventions, even within severe fiscal constraints. The paper ultimately positions quasi-experimental panel analytics as a
practical bridge between educational research, institutional decision-making, and equitable student success in public higher
education systems.