Economic growth, trade openness, and agricultural production as drivers of greenhouse gas emissions in Vietnam

Abstract

This study analysis the relationship between greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, economic growth, trade openness, and agricultural production in Vietnam from 1986 to 2024. The analysis uses annual data from the World Development Indicators and applies the Autoregressive Distributed Lag method to capture both short-run and long-run effects. The study results show a clear long-term relationship between GHG emissions, GDP per capita, trade openness, and agricultural production. Over the long run, economic growth is associated with higher GHG emissions, suggesting that expanding production and consumption still play a role in environmental quality. Agricultural production also increases emissions in the long term, reflecting the continued reliance on emission-intensive farming practices. Trade openness contributes to higher emissions over time, while its short-run effect on reducing emissions is weak and not statistically significant. Overall, the findings indicate that Vietnam’s current growth model remains dependent on resource use and high-emission activities. This points to the need for a gradual shift toward greener growth paths and wider adoption of low-emission practices in agriculture to support long-term emission reduction goals.