Impact of Climate Change on Horticulture in Himachal Pradesh: Temperature Trends, Crop Responses and Adaptation Strategies

Abstract

Climate change poses unprecedented challenges to Himalayan horticultural systems, with Himachal Pradesh experiencing significant temperature increases, altered precipitation patterns, and declining chill hour accumulation critical for temperate fruit production. This comprehensive study examines climate change impacts on horticulture across all altitudinal zones of Himachal Pradesh during 1990-2023, employing mixed-methods approach integrating meteorological data analysis, crop production statistics, and primary farmer surveys (n=450, 8 districts). Temperature analysis reveals significant warming trend of +1.36°C over the study period (+0.40°C/decade, p<0.001), with pronounced increases during winter months (+1.8°C) critical for chill requirement fulfillment [citation_c4aac]. Annual rainfall demonstrates declining pattern from 1,245mm (1990-99 average) to 1,068mm (2014-23), representing 14.2% reduction with increasing inter-annual variability (coefficient of variation increased from 12% to 23%). Snowfall days declined dramatically from 45 days/year (1990-99) to 22 days/year (2020-23), resulting in 36.8% reduction in chill unit accumulation at mid-altitude apple zones (1,500-2,200m). Crop impact assessment reveals differential responses: high-altitude apple cultivation experiencing 18% average yield decline due to inadequate chill hours and increased pest pressures, mid-altitude zones showing 12% decline with northward and upward geographical shift of suitable cultivation areas averaging 280-350m altitude gain, stone fruits demonstrating moderate resilience with 8% yield reduction, while subtropical fruits and off-season vegetables exhibiting positive responses (+12% and +5% respectively) due to extended growing seasons and reduced frost risks. Extreme weather event frequency increased 2.8-fold, with unseasonal frost events, damaging hailstorms, and concentrated rainfall causing substantial production losses averaging 15-25% in affected seasons. Farmer perception surveys indicate 87% farmers observing significant climate changes including delayed winter onset, reduced snow cover duration, erratic rainfall patterns, and increasing pest-disease pressures, with 62% reporting adoption of various adaptation strategies including variety diversification, altitude zone shifts, protected cultivation, and irrigation system improvements. Statistical analysis confirms strong negative correlation between temperature increase and apple productivity in traditional zones (r=-0.78, p<0.001), while regression modeling indicates each 1°C temperature increase associates with 12.5% yield reduction in mid-altitude apple belts when chill hours fall below critical threshold of 1,000-1,200 hours. Economic impact assessment estimates annual production losses of ₹1,200-1,500 crores attributable to climate change effects, affecting approximately 850,000 farming families dependent on horticulture. Priority adaptation interventions recommended include: development and promotion of low-chill apple cultivars requiring <800 chill hours, strategic altitude zone management with systematic cultivation shifts to higher elevations (2,200-3,000m) in suitable areas, crop diversification toward climate-resilient species including kiwi, persimmon, and high-value vegetables, precision irrigation systems addressing erratic rainfall patterns and water scarcity, integrated pest management for emerging climate-induced pest challenges, protected cultivation technologies extending growing seasons and reducing weather risks, weather-indexed crop insurance schemes, real-time agro-advisory systems utilizing climate forecasts, and comprehensive capacity building for climate-smart horticultural practices. The study provides empirical evidence that climate change fundamentally threatens traditional horticulture in Himachal Pradesh while simultaneously creating opportunities in new crop systems and altitude zones, demanding proactive, evidence-based adaptation strategies ensuring sectoral sustainability and farmer livelihood security under changing climate scenarios.