Environmental Uncertainty's Impact on EFL Argumentation Performance: Moderating Roles of Reflective Scaffolds and Cognitive Assets in Pandemic Holidays

Abstract

This study investigates the impact of environmental uncertainty, particularly during pandemic-induced holidays, on English as a Foreign Language (EFL)
learners' collaborative argumentation performance. Drawing from financial econometric models adapted to educational contexts, we employ a hybrid approach
combining Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) with Difference-in-Differences (DID) to analyze volatility in learning outcomes,
alongside dynamic panel data to examine moderating effects. The research focuses on 193 pre-service teachers divided into experimental and control groups,
utilizing online whiteboard-based scaffolds inspired by Identification, Summarization, Self-Reflective Questioning, and Application (ISSA) methods. Findings
reveal that pandemic holidays exacerbate performance volatility, with greater effects on smaller learner groups, akin to small-cap stocks in uncertain markets.
Reflective scaffolds and cognitive assets (e.g., R&D intensity analogous to innovation in learning strategies) positively moderate this relationship, enhancing
group-level cognitive regulation and written argument skills. The degree of internationalization in EFL, such as cross-cultural elements, positively influences
performance, moderated by proprietary educational assets. Limitations include the China-centric sample; future cross-country studies could explore regional
variations in online-offline EFL models. This contributes to educational theory by bridging economic uncertainty models with EFL pedagogy, emphasizing multichannel scaffolding for resilience.