Estimation of Land Value Uplift Impacts of Thorpe Park Station Using Evidence from the North of England Model

Abstract

This research examines the potential land and property value uplift resulting from the proposed Thorpe Park Station in East Leeds, UK. The study
identifies the key variables influencing land and property value changes, evaluate how the station will affect these factors, and estimates the magnitude of value
uplift in the surrounding area. Using the North of England Model, an ex-ante quantitative analysis was conducted based on five variables: accessibility, place
quality, building characteristics, neighborhood socio-economic context and supply-demand balance. The finding indicate that Thorpe Park Station will generate
significant spatial and economic impacts. Improved accessibility to major employment centers nearby, particularly Leeds and York, is projected to reduce travel
times by up to 10.4 minutes, leading to an estimated 6.15% property value uplift within 400 meters of the station. Additional factor such as enhanced place quality
from proximity to The Springs retail hub (10%), new-build housing premiums (18.1%), and generation effects (2.76%) are expected to further enhance the value
growth. Collectively, these factors suggest a potential property value increase of approximately 40% in the closest catchment zone. This research contributes to the
understanding of transport-triggered land value uplift in emerging suburban areas and provides insights for applying land value capture mechanisms to support
sustainable transport financing.